| We've had an environmental health scare of major
proportions - but now, at least, we can be real, says
Adrian Glamorgan
The
world got a health scare last month. Two thousand climate
scientists, supported by officials from governments
the world over, confirmed the world is getting hotter
- and hotter. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) announced that it was 90-99 per cent likely
that the unprecedented melting of the Greenland permanent
ice cap, the trend to more intense cyclones since 1970,
the extending of drought in many countries, the change
in rainfall in the tropics, the incidence of rain coming
less often but harder when it does, heat waves and extreme
high tides, are all symptoms of global warming, human
caused.
Two hundred mega-gigatons of carbon have glutted into
the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution, trapping
in heat from the sun like glass in a greenhouse. Eleven
out of the warmest 12 years on record occurred in the
last 12 years.
Global concentrations of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide
now far exceed pre-industrial levels over the last 650,000
years. The price for our mere 200 year old travel and
consumption spree could be the loss of half of all species
on earth, all the coral reefs, 100 million people without
homes or country, desertified farms and rainforests
turned barren. Some, like NASA scientist Dr James Hansen,
are suggesting that if we reach a tipping point for
climate runaway, humans could quickly find themselves
living on effectively a different planet. Hansen is
also deeply concerned that the White House has been
editing US federal press releases to make climate change
seem less threatening.
That's what makes this United Nations report so important.
It's objective, peer-reviewed (several times over),
and timely. The IPCC warns us to expect hotter temperatures
and rises in sea level to continue for centuries. From
now to 2100, we can expect a rise in world temperature
in the range of 1.1 and 6.4 degrees Celsius. Sea levels
will probably rise by 18 to 59cm, a real threat to some
coastlines with surges and king tides. (A leaked CSIRO
report last month notes that Tasmania and Victoria's
east coast will face the equivalent of "100 year"
storms.)
This is just the first instalment: the Working Group
1 IPCC simply establishing the scientific basis. Next
month, look out for a second report, which will examine
the impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities of climate
change and then, in early May, Working Group III will
outline how the world can mitigate - but not yet eliminate
- the problem. By the end of the year, the world will
be given a synthesised assessment. Climate change will
stay in the news for some time yet.
The world has responded quickly to the global warning.
There was near universal acceptance of the reality of
climate change and recognition of the need for action.
Within a week, for example, the European Union announced
it would mandate car manufacturers to cut their emissions
by 20 per cent. Then the Earth Challenge was announced
by former US Vice President Al Gore and billionaire
entrepreneur Richard Branson: find a way to remove a
billion tons of carbon a year from the atmosphere, and
$32 million is yours. (Australian of the Year climate
scientist Tim Flannery will be a judge on the panel.)
Australians have suddenly become quite concerned about
global warming. After all, we have the highest emissions
per capita of any country in the developed world, six
times higher than Chinese per capita emissions. As a
nation we emit more greenhouse gases than Indonesia,
which has 200 million people. We want to see action,
yet Australia's greenhouse gas emissions from electricity
have gone up 40 per cent since 1990. No one thinks that
climate change will be easy. But something, many things,
need to be done.
So let's imagine: One dream is that our governments
and we as a community will start taking the whole issue
seriously. We'll shift to renewables, and preventative
work like better building codes and better emission
standards. We'll encourage carbon trading, with a cap
to make the trading real. Our economy will make the
change. Some point along, our hearts will grasp how
much is enough, and ask no more.
The second option is that the community will be coaxed
out of concern by politicians and mining companies.
In America, there was a suggestion that a huge solar
sail might be floated up into space to keep the sun
off us. Bizarre. In Australia, we had the study that
told us that nuclear power is the painless greenhouse
answer - despite it taking 18 years of coal burning
to refine the uranium, and no accounting for the handing
over of tens of thousands of years of nuclear waste-keeping
to later generations, Renewables weren't even investigated.
Our planet deserves better.
In 1991, I worked for a key environmental organisation
that lobbied the then Hawke government about climate
change. We reasoned then that if Australia switched
to clean technologies and changed building and waste
management codes we could save ourselves from dirty
coal power stations and establish renewable energy as
a major exporter. At the time, the mainstream press
was more interested in what Phillip Toyne thought of
Ros Kelly, the environment minister. The country missed
the opportunity, in part because what such media news
often marks not what is important, but what titillates.
Environmentalists have been now outlining the trend
for almost two decades.
I suggested the IPCC Report was the equivalent of a
health scare. No one likes bad news, but if it comes
at least you know where you stand, you can be real,
and it's an excellent focuser of one's energies. The
IPCC Report is plain, simple, direct, compelling. We
are in trouble. We need to do something, many things.
Starting now. It gives us a jolt, but let's not bother
about denial, anger or bargaining. Acceptance brings
better gifts. It allows us to get on with the new life
of our changing world, where there is so much to be
done.
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